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Oilseed complex

The significant tightness on the soya complex is barely visible on the rest of the oilseeds. Even though soya meal prices are at record levels in Europe, the situation for rapeseed and sunflower is counterbalanced by good supply. Seed imports from Ukraine and Australia are therefore limiting any potential for an increase in the short term. In the longer term, it will be important to monitor both the slowdown in vegetable oil imports into Europe and the weather market. Even if the balance sheets allow it, any weather incidents (particularly in Australia or Europe, given the drought) could bring stability to the market.

Cereals complex

The cereal market is being penalised by the disappearance of the geopolitical premium, driving wheat and corn prices back to their pre-war levels. With the economic backdrop still very uncertain and penalised by demand that is slow to return, traders are losing interest in raw materials such as crude oil which is struggling to maintain its $75/bbl level. The focus is now on the next campaign. Crop condition at the end of winter will be the determining factor, as will the return of demand over the next few months, particularly in Asia.

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