Lidea & Agritel biweekly news edition

September 16, 2022

Rapeseed harvest image with a yellow harvester

Oilseed complex:

The oilseed market could exit the bearish trend over the coming weeks in the event of bad weather in South America or if buyers return in large numbers. The situation is neutral at the moment. There is some tightness but also some more favourable elements such as the global balance sheet for rapeseed.

Macroeconomic factors will also dominate energy costs but also in terms of the ongoing Covid situation in China.

Cereals complex:

The cereals market is still split and prices are still searching for equilibrium.

Concerning wheat, supply in the main exporters outside the Black Sea is still down despite the good situation in Canada and Australia. The only region to register a surplus this year is the Black Sea.

The increase in wheat exports from Ukraine and especially Russia has been exerting bearish pressure on European prices and the Euronext futures market over the past month.

The Russian authorities, however, are openly criticising this corridor saying that poorer countries are not benefiting enough from it. Therefore, any risk that this corridor will close is a bullish factor for wheat prices.

This corridor is also crucial for the maize market. With European production falling sharply to 53Mt and US production to 354.2Mt, the maize market is tight and needs Ukrainian crops to help it balance.

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