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Market insights and trends

August 19, 2021

Lidea

Oilseed complex:

The various reports published this month (August) have kept oilseed prices stable, particularly palm oil which is registering new all-time highs. The deterioration in production now seems to have been taken on board by the market but the campaign still has a long way to go, especially for soya. The results of ProFarmer’s crop tour must be closely monitored in order to gain a better idea of the production potential of US soya as at mid-August. Rapeseed production is likely to reach 3.2Mt in France and 3Mt in Ukraine, but Canada’s production level is still a concern with the harvests only just starting.

Cereals complex:

The changes in the USDA's report have confirmed the expected tightness for the cereals complex (mainly for wheat and maize). There is no room for any new production incidents in the US Corn Belt or in the southern hemisphere, particularly for Argentine and Australian wheat. In Europe, the expected higher proportion of feed wheat when compared to last year is likely to provide competition for maize. For the time being, however, the recent surge on wheat is taking the entire cereals complex along in its wake. This is underpinning the barley market which is also enjoying good demand from China.