Lidea biweekly newsletter with Agritel
December 23, 2022
The oilseed markets have declined in recent weeks in the wake of vegetable oils and because of the sluggishness of the European balance sheets for rapeseed. The oilseed complex, however, still has numerous supporting factors: the balance sheets for US soya are still tight, there are concerns about the development of Argentina’s crops, and palm oil stocks in Asia’s main exporters are falling.
The apparent increase in global wheat supply follows on from the erosion of the risk premium for the war in Ukraine. Wheat is therefore close to a nine-month low and is back to pre-war levels. China’s demand seems to be returning for certain commodities such as crude oil and barley. Global demand is still modest, however, as we approach the end-of-year celebrations, and international trade over the next few weeks may not be quite so buoyant. The next meetings of the central banks at the beginning of the year will set the tone for renewed optimism about a possible global economic recovery.