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September 17, 2021
Let's see how the market situation has evolved since the last two weeks.
THE OILSEED MARKET
Vegetable oil prices are still historically high thanks to tight balance sheets. Supply is low, especially for rapeseed/canola, whilst global demand remains high. India has just reduced its import taxes on oils which would suggest a new round of purchases (palm oil in particular).
China’s crush margins are falling, suggesting lower consumption. The USDA is still optimistic and forecasting imports of 101Mt of soya.
The ongoing canola harvests in Canada and the arrival of Black Sea sunflower and US soya must be monitored over the coming weeks.
THE GRAIN MARKET
The markets must assimilate all the new reports. There were a number of changes although most of them were expected. Even though the balance sheets for milling wheat and malting barley remain tight, the feed complex is regaining supply. This is the case for barley and also maize, with US production likely to exceed the 380Mt mark and Ukraine’s harvest likely to be around the 39Mt mark. Given this increase in supply, demand is subject to discussion, even though the global trend was good in August. Between China’s possible cancellations of Ukrainian barley shipments or a potential tightening in Russia’s export policy, the next few months look set to be volatile again.