Lidea & Agritel Agricultural Market Newsletter

January 19, 2023

Lidea & Agritel Agricultural Market Newsletter

Oilseed complex

The main source of support for the oilseed market is soya and soybean meal. The lower soya production in the USA in 2022 and the difficult situation in South America with drought in Argentina and heavy rain in Brazil are bringing tightness for the soya complex. In the medium term, the market may ease in spring with the arrival of Brazil’s crop. The rapeseed market, whose fundamentals remain sluggish, is still following the other markets with a detrimental euro-dollar exchange rate. The rally on crude oil and biodiesel is a supporting factor. We must nonetheless wait for a rally on palm before the prices of rapeseed and sunflower can rise again.

Cereals complex

The new year is marked by renewed optimism on the markets, with particular regard to European equity. Hopes of an end to the health crisis in China are causing crude oil to rally – it is close to the $80/bbl mark again. The cereals market, however, is being penalised by a sharp fall in demand combined with an increase in supply from Russia and Australia. The uncertain weather will be monitored very closely over winter, at a time when stock levels leave no room for a weather incident.

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